The logistics of the vaccine rollout continues to improve. The Biden Administration has announced plans to purchase an additional 200 million vaccine doses, 把美国点的菜加起来.S. 到6亿, which should be enough to vaccinate 300 million Americans, 整个成年人口, 到七月底.

但现在宣布胜利还为时过早. 尽管美国.S. has struggled with its vaccine rollout, other nations have fared much worse. The global economy won’t recover until more of the population is vaccinated. New variants of the virus are emerging which could lead to further outbreaks. And everyone still needs to wear a mask and practice social distancing until health officials announce the virus is under control. But the trends are headed in the right direction.

把这个比喻延伸一下.S. still has some distance to travel before the train arrives in the station. U.S. 国内生产总值为267美元.9 billion shy of where it stood prior to the pandemic. The consensus among economists is that GDP will reach that benchmark no later than the second quarter of this year.

这个国家已经恢复了12个.22人中的700万人.在经济衰退中失去了600万个工作岗位. That leaves nearly 10 million Americans without jobs who had jobs this time last year. 

1月的报告, 净增益只有49,000个工作岗位, has spurred concerns that the recovery may be slowing. Even so, many economists expect this to be a strong year for job growth. IHS Markit预测，今年美国经济将下滑.S. 将加6.7 million jobs in ’21, Oxford Economics predicts 5.8 million, and the consensus among economists polled by The Wall Street Journal is that the U.S. 将加4.800万个工作岗位. These forecasts suggest the nation will still finish the year 3.200万至500万.1 million jobs shy of its pre-pandemic level.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits continue a bumpy trend downward. 美国.S. Employment and Training Administration (ETA) reports 861,000 workers filed claims the week ending February 13, 2021, 远低于经济衰退峰值的6%.9 million the week ending March 28, 2020. That suggests fewer layoffs are occurring. However, recent claims remain well above the pre-recession average of 235,000 claims per week.

Data from the Institute for Supply Management indicates growth continues but at a mixed pace. 其制造业指数为58.1月份为7个，低于60个.12月5日. 服务业指数也为58.1月份为7家，高于57家.前一个月7日. Readings above 50 indicate activity is expanding across the sector while below 50 signals contraction. 

其他一些积极迹象:

• Industrial production, the output of all mines, utilities and manufacturing plants in the U.S.玫瑰1.6 percent in December, the largest gain since July. The gain was well above Wall Street expectations of 0.5%. 
• 家庭收入, 家庭从工资中得到了多少啊, investments and government-aid programs, 爬0.6 percent in December compared to the prior month.
• 鲍威尔(Jerome powell)是美联储主席.S. Federal Reserve, has signaled the Fed will continue bolstering the U.S. economy through low interest rates and hefty asset purchases well into the future.
• Though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the specifics, both agree additional U.S. 刺激是必要的. 一揽子计划可能会同时通过美国和欧洲议会.S. House of Representatives and the Senate in the next few weeks.

Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. 这九个县是:奥斯汀, Brazoria, 钱伯斯, 本德堡, 加尔维斯顿, 哈里斯, 自由, 蒙哥马利和沃勒.

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